Myanmar, What will happen next?
Since February 1, 2021, nearly over 1 year and 6 months have elapsed since the military coup took place in Myanmar. As of this moment, the military continues to hold authority, while the democratic forces persistently resist the military council with considerable strength and agility.
In practical situation on the ground, both sides are locked in a struggle for control, with the democratic forces intensifying their efforts to gain more influence in the areas. Meanwhile, the military council remains persistent in consolidating power by employing various tactics to maintain their authority.
Up to this point, the civilian populace continues to resist the military council, employing a combination of military and non-violent approaches. Particularly in places like Sagaing, both methods of resistance are notably evident. Concurrently, the People’s Defense Force (PDF) exhibits its capability in reclaiming control of territories, as seen in the Shwe Nwal Thway strike and multi-protests within Yin Mar Bin Township, Sagaing
Furthermore, expatriate Burmese citizens continue to play a crucial role in the ongoing protests and revolution, providing support to the revolutionary forces in every possible manner. Their unwavering support serves to bolster the strength of this revolutionary journey, propelling it forward with greater determination.
Recently, a demonstration against the military dictatorship took place in Tokyo, Japan, reflecting the global solidarity with the cause. Similarly, in Israel, Myanmar citizens organized a demonstration advocating for the downfall of the military dictator. These international protests highlight the widespread support and solidarity from Myanmar expatriates around the world in their quest for a democratic Myanmar.
On the other hand, there are various segments of the population living under the control of the military council. Some of these individuals, though supporting the democratic forces, may not possess sufficient strength to actively contribute. Nevertheless, every contribution, no matter how small, plays a part in the collective movement towards a democratic future.
Indeed, the situation in Myanmar has deteriorated significantly since the military coup, with the country facing a series of economic challenges. The economic conditions continue to worsen as the currency depreciation, and increasing prices of daily foods and goods are leading to a state of economic instability. Experts are warning that the situation is not merely characterized by instability, but rather it is progressing towards a full-fledged economic failure. The impact of the political upheaval and the subsequent economic crisis is taking a heavy toll on the people’s livelihoods and the overall stability of the nation.
At present, the military council is attempting to address the collapsing economy by implementing policies using shock therapy methods. They are employing drastic and abrupt measures in an effort to stabilize the economic situation. However, such approaches can be risky and may have significant implications on various sectors and the general populace. The effectiveness and long-term consequences of these policies remain uncertain, and the overall success in healing the economy is subject to uncertainty and scrutiny from both domestic and international observers.
The US government’s decision to sanction two major banks had a profound impact on the Myanmar military council, representing a significant blow to their financial stability. As a result of this action, the military council found itself facing a severe income shortage. To compensate for the loss of income, they resorted to the strategy of printing new currency notes. This move is an attempt to inject more money into the economy and address the financial challenges they are facing. However, such actions can lead to potential risks such as inflation and further economic instability if not managed carefully.
Politically, the NUG government is currently at a stage where it is striving to limit the military’s control over various parts of Myanmar. By bolstering the military capabilities of the People’s Defense Force, the NUG government also aims to counter the military council’s influence and gradually establish their own de facto power throughout the nation. However, this remains an ongoing and challenging process, with uncertainties and obstacles along the way.
Economically, the people of Myanmar have endured the hardships of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the military coup, resulting in a severely struggling economy. The nation faces bankruptcy, soaring inflation, and a high cost of goods. The unemployment rate has surged, and the absence of international investors has led to a decline in the country’s income. This combination of factors has put immense strain on the economy, leaving it in a precarious state and struggling to survive.
The future of Myanmar remains uncertain and complex, as the current situation lacks a clear and definitive resolution. The ongoing power struggle between the military council and the democratic forces has created a challenging environment with no immediate end in sight.
One concerning trend that is likely to persist is Brain Drain — the emigration of skilled and educated individuals seeking better opportunities abroad. The prolonged political and economic instability in Myanmar is driving many people to leave the country in search of safer and more promising prospects elsewhere. This emigration of talent and skilled workforce can pose a significant threat to the country’s long-term development and progress.
One thing is for sure, Brain Drain, which will threaten the country’s development in the future, is likely to continue. Because people are already trying to leave the country in various ways.
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